{"blocks":[{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"In May 2025, the brief India-Pakistan confrontation illustrated a key shift in deterrence. Despite both states being nuclear-armed, the conflict remained conventional."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Rising conventional strike capabilities now allow states to signal resolve, impose costs, and manage escalation without resorting to nuclear threats."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"This dynamic is mirrored elsewhere. "}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"In the Middle East and Ukraine, nuclear weapons act as a ceiling states avoid crossing unless vital interests are at stake. Below that threshold, conflicts are conducted through high-intensity conventional warfare. "}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"European states are increasingly repositioning to complement — or compensate for the absence of — nuclear deterrence with advanced deep conventional strike (DPS) capabilities."}},{"type":"header","data":{"text":"The Conventional-Nuclear Continuum","level":2}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"For decades, strategic thinking focused on nuclear arsenals. States measured and flexed nuclear capabilities to communicate deterrence."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Yet the India-Pakistan flare-up shows a different reality: both sides stayed within the conventional domain. The nuclear “ceiling” remains intact, but the floor of conventional coercion is expanding."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Deep Precision Strike (DPS) is decisive in this shift. Long-range, high-precision systems can penetrate robust air defenses to hit high-value targets, using warheads of significant payload."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"They serve three roles: as operational effectors, as signals imposing costs, and as a complement to nuclear deterrence."}},{"type":"image","data":{"file":{"url":"https://thedefensepost.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/9317533-1024x683.jpg"},"caption":"Norwegian soldiers conduct training during an exercise at an undisclosed location within the European Theater. Photo: Sgt. Addysyn Tobar/US Marine Corps"}},{"type":"header","data":{"text":"Europe's Wake-Up Call","level":2}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"In Europe today, a growing number of states are waking up to this logic."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The extended US nuclear umbrella is increasingly seen as uncertain; purely defensive capabilities are no longer enough. "}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Poland’s case is emblematic. Confronted by Russia’s war in Ukraine and proximity to Belarus, Polish leaders have debated nuclear acquisition but lack time to pursue such options."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Instead, Warsaw is accelerating DPS development through its domestic Lanca project, a joint low-cost cruise missile program with Anduril. The country has also paid particular interest to France on the MdCN missile and its ground-launched Land Cruise Missile variant. "}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Even nuclear-armed European states are adjusting."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"In July 2025, the UK and France coordinated nuclear deterrence under the Northwood Declaration, signaling that extreme threats would prompt a response. "}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Behind the pledge lies a broader shift: credible deterrence is now shifting from only nuclear to nuclear plus credible conventional options. "}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The two countries are also the most experienced in Europe in the operational use of cruise missiles, including the SCALP/Storm Shadow, whose performance in Ukraine and India has recently made headlines. "}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Three factors drive this logic. "}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"First, nuclear deterrence depends on visible, resilient conventional forces. Without them, nuclear threats lose credibility."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Second, modern conflicts demand striking in the adversary’s depth, not merely defending one’s homeland. DPS enables attacks on command nodes, logistics, dual-use infrastructure, and maneuver corridors, raising the cost of aggression. "}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Third, DPS deters below the nuclear threshold. If adversaries believe they can wage limited wars without risking nuclear escalation, deterrence erodes."}},{"type":"header","data":{"text":"European Initiatives in Practice","level":2}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"France is considering developing a conventional-capable ballistic system with a 2,000-kilometer+ (1,243-mile) range, potentially paving the way for hypersonic applications. "}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The final decision has not yet been made, and deliveries would not take place before 2035–2040. "}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"France and the UK are also key partners in ELSA (European Long-Range Strike Approach), alongside Poland, Germany, Italy, and Sweden to shape next-generation long-range precision-strike systems. "}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"A recent letter of intent confirms the desire to move forward, with initial results showing growing European consensus on the need for a credible DPS."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"But the most decisive projects appear to be at a standstill, despite their technical maturity and the alternative they offer to acquiring American Tomahawks, with the Land Cruise Missile being one of them. "}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Indeed, progress remains slow. Political and industrial inertia threatens to undercut Europe’s ability to act decisively. "}},{"id":"kem9opb6-zu000mj6","type":"embed","data":{"service":"twitter","source":"https://twitter.com/PlJonson/status/2022019625039671323","embed":"https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?id=2022019625039671323","caption":""}},{"type":"header","data":{"text":"Closing the Gap","level":2}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"As the reality of high-intensity conflict returns to Europe, leaders can no longer rely solely on nuclear threats or defensive postures. The lesson is clear, whether it comes from Ukraine, India, or Israel: deterrence depends on a full spectrum of capabilities."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Deep Precision Strike is a new, central asset in preventing the aggressor from gaining the upper hand under the pretext of acting “below the nuclear threshold.” It offers a way to deter, signal resolve, and impose meaningful costs in this perspective."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"In this context, Europe’s leaders face no choice but to accelerate procurement and operationalization. "}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Today’s sudden and brutal reality forces rapid adaptation, requiring clear priorities and firm resolves, indeed the core foundations of any credible deterrence posture, whether nuclear or conventional."}},{"type":"delimiter","data":{}},{"type":"image","data":{"file":{"url":"https://thedefensepost.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Helena-Schmidt.png"},"caption":""}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Helena Schmidt is a senior analyst in European foreign and security policy, with extensive experience in European think tanks, specializing in NATO dynamics, and the defense policies of Central and Eastern European member states."}},{"type":"delimiter","data":{}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of The Defense Post."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The Defense Post aims to publish a wide range of high-quality opinion and analysis from a diverse array of people – do you want to send us yours? Click here to submit an op-ed."}}]}

Helena Schmidt

Deterrence Re-Imagined: The Rising Role of the Deep Precision Strike